Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Variability and Trends for Improved Climate Risk Management in Kayonza District, Eastern Rwanda

The variability, intensity, and distribution of rainfall have drawn a lot interest globally especially in nations where rainfed agriculture is the norm. This article uses data from Rwanda Meteorology Agency for years 1981 to 2021 delineate analyze variability trends Kayonza District. time series were grouped using K-means clustering technique based on computed Euclidean distance, total within-cluster sum squares, elbow plot determine optimal number clusters. coefficient variation measures was employed while Sen’s slope Mann–Kendall (MK) test used, respectively, find changes magnitude. results indicated four near homogeneous zones named region one four. dry seasons higher compared rainy annual with 128–142% over southeastern part during June August (JJA) season, 16–48% observed most district both seasons. It further noted that areas central District significant increasing trend at significance level 95% above January February (JF), September December (SOND), basis, March May (MAM) JJA season exhibited no trend. findings this study are essential creating adequate mitigation strategies lessen climate change’s effects as well other socioeconomic sectors.